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基于农业旱涝指标的湖北省棉花生育期内旱涝急(5)
作者:网站采编关键词:
摘要:SAPEI在建立农田水分收支量时,采用降水量代表降雨入渗量,没有考虑地表径流和地下径流的影响,这可能导致暴雨时SAPEI反映的涝渍程度过重。因此未来
SAPEI在建立农田水分收支量时,采用降水量代表降雨入渗量,没有考虑地表径流和地下径流的影响,这可能导致暴雨时SAPEI反映的涝渍程度过重。因此未来可通过引入由降雨量计算入渗量的转化公式来改进SAPEI,从而更加准确地反映农田水分状况。
4 结论
1)SAPEI指标适用于反映湖北省棉花的每日水分盈亏状况,可逐日进行旱涝条件判断,从而有效识别旱涝急转点,为旱涝急转事件的判断提供参考依据。
2)湖北省棉花的旱涝急转灾害以旱转涝形式为主。花铃期旱涝急转发生频率高且强度大;蕾期旱涝急转次数少但单次强度较大;吐絮期旱涝急转单次强度低而次数偏多,苗期旱涝急转次数少且单次强度较低。因此棉花旱涝急转风险最大的生育期是花铃期。
3)旱转涝的高风险区广泛分布于湖北省的东部、中部和西北部,而涝转旱高风险区的分布主要集中于鄂西北和鄂东南。鄂西北和鄂东南的洪湖地区同时是旱转涝和涝转旱的高值区,旱涝情势复杂。
4)湖北省20 世纪70年代棉花旱涝急转的风险最高、分布范围最广;20 世纪70年代至今,旱涝急转具有次数减少但是单次强度增加的趋势;从20 世纪90年代至今,湖北省棉花旱涝急转有总体风险增强、发生范围变广、自西部向东部转移的趋势。2000—2019年,湖北省棉花旱涝急转平均强度、站次数呈波动式变化,并在2000年、2011年次数达到峰值,在2016年、2017年平均强度达到峰值。
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